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Annual Report 2011
10
Lacklustre performance going forward
The Member States’ sluggish growth rates are likely to
continue. According to the European Commission fore-
cast, real GDP will on average only stagnate in the EU in
2012; however, a mild recovery is expected towards the
end of the year. There will again be a significant differ-
ence between the performances of Member States, with
mainly southern eurozone countries likely to experience
further recession in 2012. Moreover, the downside risks to
economic growth remain heavily elevated for Europe as a
whole, mainly due to the financial and fiscal uncertainties.
SME environment
Within the EU-27, 99.8% of enterprises are SMEs; Euro-
stat counts 20.9 million of them and they account for two
out of three jobs (66.7%). In 2011, the business climate
for SMEs showed a relatively stable situation, but with
increasing dif ferences between EU Member States.
Moreover, the uncertain general economic outlook led
to increased downside risks for the activities of SMEs.
2011 was the year …
… in which policymakers were heavily focussed on fight-
ing increased concerns about sovereign debt sustain-
ability in particular in the eurozone. Financial and fis-
cal uncertainties increased and the pace of economic
growth slowed down. In the second half of 2011, real
GDP growth even turned negative for many EU Member
States. This situation entailed the possibility for an easing
of monetary policy towards the end of the year. Even if
actual inflation exceeded by far the European Central
Bank’s (ECB) definition of price stability, the perspec-
tives tended towards a significant moderation of inflation.
Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook and
financial market disruptions had considerably increased.
These factors have resulted in a great degree of uncer-
tainty in the global economy, and have impeded the re-
covery. According to EC data, overall real GDP growth
in the EU leveled at around 1.5%.
European market environment
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
4
3
2
1
0
–1
–2
–3
–4
–5
European Union real GDP growth – in %
Source: European Commission (*forecast)
3.3
3.2
2.0
1.5
0
0.3
-4.3